2013 Columbus Blue Jackets - The second "grading period"

The second "grading period" is over.  Back in school, this meant it was time for mid-year "finals".  For the Blue Jackets it means that we have now passed the 24th game of this compacted season.  And as such, we are halfway through the season.  That means we have half of a season to go.  Unlike what some journalists may have led you to believe, the season isn't over, nor is it close to being so.  There's a lot of hockey left to play, even in a season that has a lot less hockey than usual.  And that's a good thing.  A hot second half can build a momentum that will then carry over into a deep playoff run, for example.

So, without further ado, a look at the second 12 games of the 2013 Blue Jackets season.

The End (of the six game homestand):

The second quarter opened as the Blue Jackets wrapped up their season-long six-game homestand.  They were playing the San Jose Sharks, who to that point had a 7-2-2 record and had been competing with the Chicago Blackhawks for the honor of the last team to lose in regulation.  Add to that the fact that the Blue Jackets played Edmonton the night before, to frustrating results, and San Jose had been in town and resting as that game was playing, and it would have been easy to expect the Jackets to drop another.

What happened was entirely different.

Forty-three seconds into the game Brandon Dubinsky put his first goal as a Blue Jacket on the board, and the game was on.  While the remainder of the first period was quiet from a scoring standpoint, there were a couple of fights; one each for Derek Dorsett and Jared Boll and shots were nearly even, with the Sharks having an 11-10 edge.

But this was only the start.  In the second period the defense got involved with the offense as James Wisniewski and Cody Goloubef scored.  The goal by Goloubef was his first NHL marker and it staked the Jackets to a 3-0 lead.  Patrick Marleau, Noted Jacket Killer, got one back before the period closed out and the  lead at the second break was 3-1.

Quickly in the third period, 21 seconds in, the lead was stretched back to 3 as Nikita Nikitin got his first of the season.  The Jackets added further tallies from Mark Letestu and Vinny Prospal 8 seconds apart around the 5:30 mark of the period to make it a 6-1 game.  The Sharks got a garbage-time goal from Pavelski make it 6-2,  but that was all she wrote.  Steve Mason stood tall in net, stopping 25 of 27, to get the win that would send the Jackets off on a six-game road swing.

Go west, young men!:

Next up for the Blue Jackets was a season-long 6-game road trip.  The trip included three games in Southern California and Arizona, and three others against Central Division rivals as the team came home.  The trip started in California, with the Jackets facing the Stanley Cup-holding LA Kings.  The game was scoreless through most of the first two periods until Kyle Clifford put the champs up with less than two minutes remaining in the second period.  After stretching that to 2-0 on a power play goal from Mike Richards early in the third, the Blue Jackets scored with just under 2:30 remaining in the game.  That goal, from Nick Foligno, avoided the shutout by Kings goalie Jonathan Bernier.  Sergei Bobrovsky was in net for the Blue Jackets and took the loss, despite saving 20 of 22.

The Blue Jackets were right back at it the next night in yet another back end of back-to-back games.  They were in the desert to face the Coyotes, and the Jackets seemed as if they'd left their legs back in LA.  Steve Mason was in net, and was hung out on a number of occasions.  But the game opened on a bright point as Jared Boll scored his first of the season 2:09 into the game.  But the Coyotes followed with a equalizer at 5:30 from David Moss, then took the lead a minute and a half later from the stick of Radim Vrbata.  Matt Calvert tied it for the Jackets a minute later and it would be nearly 10 minutes before Kyle Chipchura put the Coyotes back on top.  Derek MacKenzie equalized on the only goal of the second period, and so it was 3-3 going into the last period.  Martin Handzal scored a power play marker at 8:18 of the last frame, and then followed up with an empty net goal, sending the Jackets to a 5-3 defeat.

The next game began a string of one-goal games that would stretch through the remainder of the quarter.  The Blue Jackets had traveled back to Southern California to play the Ducks. Once again, the Blue Jackets were the first team to score; Vinny Prospal putting the puck past Jonas Hiller 3:30 into the game.  However, the Ducks scored twice in 21 seconds apart around the 16 minute mark of the period to take a 2-1 lead into the first break. Neither team scored in the second and the stalemate was broken on a Corey Perry goal on the power play at 8:44.  Derrick Brassard scored just after the 12-minute mark to draw within 3-2, and that's where the game ended, with the Ducks winners.

After a couple of days to travel, the Jackets next took the ice at Joe Louis Arena against the hated rival Detroit Red Wings.  The Jackets came into the game 1-0-1 for the season against the Wings and had looked strong in both games, but only 18 seconds into the game Sergei Bobrovsky gave up a goal to new Jackets Killer, Damien Brunner.  Just a little over two minutes later the Wings made it 2-0 on a goal from Valtteri Filppula, and the night was not looking promising, especially considering the issues that the Blue Jackets have been having with scoring.  However, at 4:23 the Jackets got one back when R. J. Umberger got his second goal of the year.  The game then settled down, going more than two periods without a goal before Derek Dorsett scored at 5:08 of the third.  Then, as the game was winding down and appeared to be headed for overtime at 2-2, Vinny Prospal scored with 25 seconds remaining, and the Jackets left Detroit with a 3-2 win, a 2-0-1 record against the Wings, and the assurance that they would do no worse than .500 versus their top rivals.

Next up were back-to-back games against Chicago and St. Louis.  Depending on the outcome of this season, it may be that a turning point will be identified in this road swing.  Perhaps in these two games, or maybe with the Umberger goal against the Wings that got the Jackets on the board, or maybe even with Prospal's late winner against them.  But one thing is certain; somewhere in these divisional games on this trip the tenor of the Blue Jacket's play changed, and the defense became stronger, and the little things that have not been done defensively with any consistency over the last three years were now being done.

The first of the back-to-back pair was in St. Louis.  The game was a close, hard fought battle that ended in a 2-1 loss to the Blues.  Sergei Bobrovsky was in net as Cam Stewart scored in the first and David Perron scored with a little over 10 minutes left in the game for the Blues.  The Jackets scored their goal in the second period on Matt Calvert's third of the season, a short-hander with just over a minute left in the period. Bob stopped 21 of 23 in the losing effort.

The following day in Chicago it was Steve Mason who got the call in net.  Unfortunately for Mason, on this night giving up one goal on 27 shots was one goal too many.  The goal by Andrew Shaw late in the second period was the only goal of the game as the Blue Jackets failed to snap the Hawks points streak.  The defense and the goalkeeping were strong, and simply lacked on the offensive end as Corey Crawford recorded the shutout.

A streak of their own:

The Jackets returned from the western trip to begin a string of 10 of their next 12 at home.  The first opponent in this 12-game run would be the Dallas Stars.  As in their previous meeting in Columbus, the Blue Jackets started Bobrovsky in net, while the Stars went with Richard Bachman.  After a mostly uneventful first period, Brendan Morrow put the Stars on the board first with 5 minutes left in the period.  And thus began the back-and-forth.  Early in the second the Jackets pulled even on a goal by Nikitin, and a little more than four minutes later the Stars pushed ahead once again on a goal by Derek Roy.  Derek Dorsett equalized less than a minute later, and it was 2-2 at 6:19 of the second.  A little more than a minute and a half later the Stars got the last goal of the period from Antoine Roussel, and it was 3-2 at the break.  Cam Atkinson tied the game once more at 6:16 of the third.  When the Stars went ahead at 13:36 of the period, on a goal by Cody Eakin, it looked like it may have been game over.  But then, with 1:34 left in the game, R. J. Umberger scored his 3rd of the year to send the game to overtime.  But at 3:03 of the overtime period, Noted Jacket Killer Loui Eriksson ended the tilt, and the Stars squeaked out a 5-4 overtime win.

Next for the Jackets was a second crack in 5 days at breaking the Blackhawks points streak, once again at the United Center.  As on the previous occasion, the Jackets had Steve Mason in net, though this was no 1-0 outcome.  Vinny Prospal staked the Jackets to an early lead on his 7th goal of the year only 31 seconds into the game.  The Hawks tied it late in the period on a goal by Viktor Stalberg.  A little more than half way through the period the Jackets went ahead once more on a goal by Artem Anisimov.  In the last five minutes of the period the Hawks tied and jumped ahead with goals by Patrick Sharp and Bryan Bickell, scored 59 seconds apart.  At 12:23 of the third period the Jackets equalized on a goal by Ryan Johansen, his first of the year.  And for the second straight game the Jackets were headed to overtime.  In the extra frame, at 3:23, the Hawks scored on a goal by Brent Seabrook, to take the 4-3 victory.

The Jackets then returned home for a four game stand, starting with the Colorado Avalanche.  The game was a close defensive battle, with neither team scoring in the first period and the first goal coming at 12:35 of the second, with Colorado's P. A. Parenteau.  This was equalized in the third by Vinny Prospal's 8th of the season at 4:04 of the third.  And for the third straight game matters went to overtime.  And in overtime Artem Anisimov scored at 2:26, giving the Jackets 4 points in 3 games, and 6 in their last 6 games after being all but written off for dead in the local media.

The next game did not get out the start that the Jackets, or Steve Mason, would have liked.  In the first 20:31 of the game, Mason faced 8 shots and only stopped 5.  Falling behind 3-2 at that point, coach Todd Richards decided to make the switch and pulled Mason in favor of Bobrovsky.  At 10:44 of the second, Jack Johnson added a goal to earlier tallies from MacKenzie and Prospal to tie the game.  It remained tied through the rest of regulation and through overtime, and the game went to a shootout, which the Jackets won 2-0 on goals by Anisimov and Mark Letestu for a 4-3 Blue Jackets win.  They moved to 4 straight games with a point and their first back-to-back wins of the season.

The first half closed out at home against Vancouver, with Corey Schneider in net against Bobrovsky for the Blue Jackets.  Umberger scored at 11:33 of the first period to give the Blue Jackets the early lead, but it was equalized on a goal by Henrik Sedin at 1:05 of the third.  And this was where regulation ended.  But 4:03 into the overtime period Matt Calvert scored his fourth of the season, to give the Jackets their third straight victory, and their fifth straight game with points.  They were out to 8 point of 10 possible points in those games, and suddenly the season's momentum had seemed to change.

Assessments:

Forwards:

The scoring had picked up in the second 12 games, including more scoring coming from top six players such as Umberger and Brassard.  The return of Cam Atkinson from a high-ankle sprain also helped to boost the fortunes of the men up front.  There is still room for improvement, particularly on the power play, and getting players back from injury should help, though Derek Dorsett has been lost for the season with a broken clavicle. Johansen has also looked stronger in his return to the NHL.  Matt Calvert has come along nicely as the season has progressed.  And in the recent 5 game run the forwards are playing much better defensive hockey, with sticks on the ice and more guys going down to block shots.  This area has shown a good deal of improvement.  We'll grade it a little bit conservatively and call it a B- due to some hangover at the beginning of the quarter with lingering bad play.

Defense:

If there were one area where the Blue Jackets should be really suffering to this point, it would be defense.  At one point or another in this quarter the Jackets have been without Wisniewski, Johnson, Moore, Nikitin and Aucoin; calling up Dalton Prout and Cody Goloubef to fill in spots on the roster, both to surprising effectiveness.  On top of all of this, the Jackets have shaken off a historical deficiency on the penalty kill, now sporting one of the top 10 kills in the league (ed. note - at the time of this post, three games in to the third quarter, the PK is 5th in the league).  The one area that could understandably be the weakest on this team is proving to be the strongest, even through injuries.  They've improved their grade to B+ this term, and just as it nearly could have been lower last term, this term it's quite close to being higher.

Goal:

Outside of the poor start that Mason had against Edmonton (and who's to say that he wouldn't have been able to hold the Oilers to three after that point if left in?  Only one of the three goals was really that weak.), the goaltending has been excellent, regardless of who was in the net.  There's not a whole lot more that can be asked of them.  Their collective grade is an A; the last 9 of these 12 games ended as one-goal games, with the last five all going to overtime or further.

Through 24 games:

Leading scorers:  Vinny Prospal (9 goals, 5 assists, 14 points, 24 games), Fedor Tyutin (1 G, 12 A, 13 P, 24 GP), Mark Letestu (5 G, 8 A, 13 P, 22 GP)

Goalies:
Sergei Bobrovsky: 6-6-3, 2.46 GAA, .913 Svs%, 15 GP
Steve Mason: 2-6-1, 3.08 GAA, .897 Svs%, 11 GP

Comment: The goaltending situation (or, how blind can a fanbase be?)

I'm sure that most of you are going to dismiss this post pretty much out of hand.  "There goes Kat, making excuses for Mason again."  The fact of the matter is, he's kept us in a number of games this season we had no business being in.  And statistically he and Bobrovsky have been pretty even up until Tuesday night's game.  This post was born of a Twitter conversation about how the GP difference is playing out in Bob's favor, and grew from my observation on Tuesday night that, going into that night's games, Bob had a 2.74 GAA and .901 Save Pct. while Mason had a 2.88 GAA and a .904 Save Pct.  Considering the game was only the 11th appearance for Mason (10 starts, 1 relief), a bad game was going to be magnified in his stats more than if he was on his 30th start of the year.  Likewise, with 13 starts, a solid performance by Bob would similarly be magnified.

Their lines after 5 games:

Bobrovsky - 2-2-1, .907, 2.97 (his fifth game was the game he was pulled from against St. Louis)
Mason - 1-3-0, .906, 2.76

Both had 13 GA, with Bob facing 140 shots to Mason's 139.

Their lines after 10 games:

Bobrovsky - 3-5-2, .902, 2.78
Mason - 2-6-1, .904, 2.88

Bobrovsky had allowed 26 goals to Mason's 28, but the shot differential was much greater, with Bobrovsky facing 264 shots to Mason's 293.  That all aside, those are really pretty identical stats lines through 10 games.

Finally, let's look at the lines without the games they were pulled from.  For Mason, that's easy...it's that first 10 games.

Their lines without their "one bad game":
Bobrovsky - 5-5-3, .913, 2.40
Mason - 2-6-1, .904, 2.88

The point of this isn't to say that Mason is better than Bobrovsky, or that Bobrovsky sucks somehow.  Instead, it's to say that when you look at Mason's current line, with a .897 Save Pct. and 3.08 GAA, remember that the number is being skewed by "one bad game".  Bobrovsky has been "1A" all season, but to say that the work that Mason put in during the off-season did not have an impact; that he's the same player he has been the last three seasons, on the basis of the one bad game, is crazy.  Without his "one bad game", Bobrovsky is 15th in the league in GAA, not 23rd; 17th in Save Pct., not 28th.  Mason is 31st in GAA and 28th in Save Pct. instead of 40th and 35th, respectively.

In summary, Bobrovsky is statistically the clear head man in net.  But on the other hand, work put in by Mason is showing, and he is improving.  Getting more game time would only serve to help in that regard.  As I have stated a number of times, with the shortened season it is necessary for both goalies to stand tall in net. Without the St. Louis game, Bobrovsky is having his best season in GAA and nearly his best in Save Pct.  Without the Edmonton game, while not quite back to the numbers of his rookie season, Mason is much improved.  And in my stats courses I always learned that outliers have a greater impact when you have less data.  Given time I would expect both goalies to have numbers more like the last set than their current numbers indicate.  And that can only be good for the Blue Jackets, in the end.