19 January 2013

2013 Blue Jackets Season preview -- Goal and wrapup

Finally, lets take a look at the goalies.  This is probably the most frustrating aspect of the team.  In the inaugural season of 2000-01 the goalkeeping was the bright spot on a club that was, otherwise, a typical expansion team.  Unfortunately, the position has rarely, if ever, been as solid since.  There were bright spots at times, especially when Steve Mason burst upon the scene in 2008-09 to win Rookie of the Month twice, and the Calder Trophy as Rookie of the Year.  However, there were too many times when the team has been let down by goaltending that was as disappointing as any other aspect of the club's performance.  This may have been no more evident than it was over the first month and a half of the 2011-12 season as the team got out a 3-13-2 start, Mason was benched, and fans began to talk of a plan to "Fail for Nail".

Sergei Bobrovski:

Coming into training camp many believe that the "number 1" goalie slot will be the province of the newcomer Bobrovski, acquired from Philadelphia for a package of three draft picks (2nd and 4th rounds in 2012, and 4th round in 2013).  In two seasons with the Flyers he is 42-23-10, with a 2.73 GAA and .909 save percentage.  However, he ended up on the outside of the goalie rotation in Philadelphia, which also has notorious problems in the net, and their willingness to part with him for only picks, belies deeper issues than the stats would indicate.  Especially when comparing his rookie season in 2010-11 to his second; when "Bob" went from a 2.59 and .915 to 3.02 and .899.

Steve Mason:

The Great Enigma.  He won the 2009 Calder Trophy after a rookie season where he went 33-20-7, had a 2.29 GAA and .916 save percentage, recorded 10 shutouts, and led the team to their only playoff appearence.   In the three seasons since he has gone 60-73-19, 3.08 and .899 with only 9 shutouts.  When the team struggled out of the gate to start 2011-12, much of the blame was laid at his feet.  Many were calling for him to be traded or released, while those who had taken stock of the drop-off in defensive performance over the same problem counseled patience until it seemed that patience was no longer warranted.

Assessment:

Coming into this season it has seemed a foregone conclusion that Bobrovsky is the number one keeper, and that Mason will be backing him up.  However, there have been cryptic statements from the front office that seem to say "not so fast" to that assumption.  Bobrovsky did play for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL during the lockout, and this may give him an advantage heading into the season.  However, when President of Hockey Operations John Davidson was asked about Mason on the eve of the season, Davidson said that the goalie Mason most reminded him of was himself, he gave the former Calder winner a highly-placed vote of confidence.

Supposing that the defense shows the expected improvement with more solid players manning the blue line and a defensive guru in Todd Richards at the helm of the club, it could be expected that the goaltending will improve as well.  However, that requires a fair bit of faith on everything falling just right if the goalies do not improve on their personal struggles in 2011-12.  Reports are that Mason has come to camp in the best shape of his career, and Bobrovsky was putting up solid numbers in the KHL, so there is reason to hope that the needed improvement from the goalies will be there.  If so, then this bodes very well for the Blue Jackets.

Overall Grade:  C

In Closing:

Finally, to wrap up this series of previews, let's look at the team as a whole.  The front office now has considerable depth in talent assessment at the top, with John Davidson and Craig Patrick brought in to assist GM Scott Howson in building a solid team.  The coaching staff is led by a head coach not in his first job, and whom the players seem to genuinely respect.  The forward lines are no worse, if not better, than they had been, and the defense looks to be improved.  The goaltending seems to be the biggest question, but if early optimism is confirmed by results on the ice, then the season may turn out better than expected.

Overall Team Grade: C+

Projected Finish:  9th of 15 in the Western Conference

17 January 2013

2013 Blue Jackets Season preview -- Defense

Next...the focus is on the Defense.  This has been an area of the team that has been a weakness almost from the start.  Evidence of this can be found in the team records for plus-minus rating (+23 by Jan Hejda in the playoff season of 2008-09) and recent team leaders (Derek Dorsett with a +6 in 09-10, and Derek MacKenzie with a +14 in 10-11, and a +4 in 11-12).  While plus-minus doesn't tell the whole story when it comes to defensive performance, it does give some indication of how the defense is playing, and how it's trending.  Consider that top teams have few players in the negatives, and elite defenders have season totals that usually are upwards of +25, and you can begin to understand the struggles that the team has in front of the net, along the blue line.

There has been some debate over the last couple of seasons as to whether the issues that the Blue Jackets have faced sit in the net, or if they're rooted in the defense.  The truth is that it's probably a little bit of both.  In 2008-09, the Blue Jackets' top seven defensemen had a combined +39 (the defenseman on that team were Hejda, Kris Russell, Klesla, Tyutin, Methot, Commodore and Backman).  Last season the primary defensemen (Nikitin, Wisniewski, Tyutin, Aaron Johnson, Jack Johnson, Methot and Moore) were a combined -80.  With starts in the goal spilt about 5-to-4 between Mason and Sanford, it should be evident that defensive corps could have been considered "good", even if they were a combined -60 in front of Mason and -20 in front of Sanford.  There were obviously issues on the blue line; issues that started to crop up after the playoff season in 08-09, but which were their most obvious in 10-11 and last season.  The only bright spots were the trade that brought Jack Johnson to the club, and when Nikitin was paired with Tyutin; seeming to improve the play of the other.

Who's gone?

Let's look as the changes made in the later part of last season and the offseason.

In the "Addition by Subtraction" department, we say a not-so-fond farewell to the pylon that wore the number 5; Aaron Johnson.  Many were the nights with Blue Jackets faithful were left scratching their heads at opposing forwards left unchallenged on a post, or passes through the slot or from behind the net that were no broken up; usually seeing only a token wave of the stick.  He will be taking his 16 points and -12 to Boston, where he will hopefully spend many a night in the pressbox of The "Gahden".

In the "hate to see you go, but wish you the best" department, we say goodbye to Marc Methot.  Sent to Ottawa in the trade that brought Nick Foligno to Columbus, it was a case where off-season additions were looking to squeeze someone out, and the best return that could be had was in the deal that the Sens offered. Methot has 7 points and a -11 before being put on the sidelines by a broken jaw.  The worst part was that Methot was showing signs of improvement at the time of the injury.  When he experienced lapses on defense, the critical lapses were fewer than those by AJ.

Who's new?

During the offseason there were two major acquisitions on the defense.  The first was on Draft Day, when the Blue Jackets used the second overall pick to select Ryan Murray from Everett of the WHL.  Many view him as NHL-ready, or nearly so, after he played admirably for Canada at the World Championships.  That's the senior championship, not the U-20s.  Unfortunately, he suffered a shoulder injury early in this season's campaign for the Silvertips, and will not be available for this season, as had been hoped.

Additionally, during the free-agent signing period the Blue Jackets inked Adrian Aucoin.  He provides veteran leadership to a defensive corps where the next oldest player, Fedor Tyutin, is 10 years his junior.  In 64 games last season he had 9 points and a +14 rating.  In his other two seasons in Phoenix he was a +18 (2010-11) and a +2 (2009-10), showing that his skills remain sharp and can only help to improve the those around him.

Projected Pairings:

Wisniewski - Jack Johnson
Tyutin - Nikitin
Aucoin - Moore/Savard

With Tim Erixon, acquired in the Rick Nash trade with the Rangers in July, being returned to Springfield today, these seem to be the likely pairings.  John Moore and David Savard should push each other for the sixth spot on the defense, and if either one proves to be significantly stronger than the other, it's likely that there will be 3 solid defensive groups, and there's a good chance that they could see significant improvement.  Aucoin is an upgrade over Methot, and more than makes up for any downgrade from Aaron Johnson to either Moore or Savard (if that's truly a "downgrade").  If he makes the other players on the defense around him into better defensemen, that will make his signing more than worth it, and it should make the two-headed goal partnership look that much stronger.

Overall grade:  B-

This is possibly a pessimistic assessment, especially with a defensive specialist like Todd Richards at the helm of the club.  But after the disappointing performance by the defense in 2011-12, I believe that some caution is called for.  But as stated, if Aucoin makes the defense stronger, and if Wisniewski performs more as was expected before last season, and Johnson performs as he is believed to be capable of, this mark could go up.

10 January 2013

2013 Blue Jackets Season preview -- Forwards

Tonight the focus is on the forwards.  Not going to mess with prefaces; let's just get to it.

Centers:

Over the years, if there was one thing that stood out as a glaring weakness for the Blue Jackets, it was the lack of a quality top-six centers.  As a result, the Blue Jackets used their overall 4th pick in 2010 to draft Ryan Johansen, and picked centers with their first two picks in 2011 (Boone Jenner and T. J. Tynan). And in the trade that sent Rick Nash to Broadway, one of the players that came to Columbus was Brandon Dubinsky, who can play center or wing, but is expected to play in the middle.  Adding to Johansen and Dubinsky are Derick Brassard and Derek MacKenzie, a possible early-season look at Jenner, and Colton Gillies as the spare.  Dubinsky is projected to slot into the first line, with Brassard and Johansen competing for the second line pivot.  MacKenzie will anchor the checking line, and may see spot duty where faceoff wins are crucial.

With this crop, and with Gillies ready to step in as needed, it would seem unnecessary to rush Jenner from the junior ranks.  With the steady, piece-by-piece approach to building a team that John Davidson is known to favor, it's probably a safe bet that Jenner won't see more than the six game maximum that the NHL is allowing for underage players this season.  If he does, then it is likely that something has gone badly wrong with both Brassard and Johansen, and it would not be a good sign for this season's prospects for the Blue Jackets.  As anxious as many of the faithful are to fill Nationwide with cheers of "BOOOOOOOOOOne!", the later that we see him, the better it will bode for the team.

Left Wing:

The other traditionally weak spot on the Blue Jackets' forward lines in team history has been left wing.  Some seasons have seen the team flipping natural right-wings to the left to fill out roster spots.  The Blue Jackets came out of 2011-12 with Vinny Prospal and Derek Dorsett looking solid in their spots on the first and checking lines, respectively; but talent remained thin at the position.  Again, the post-season moves made by the front office helped to fill in the holes.  The Canada Day trade of Marc Methot to Ottawa returned Nick Foligno from the Sens, whom immediately signed a contract with the club that will run through the 2014-15 season.  Foligno figures to compete with Prospal for the first line position, and may take the spot with Dubinsky centering the top line as Prospal appeared to have developed some chemistry with Brassard last season. The fourth left wing will be Artem Anisimov, who came to Columbus in the Nash trade, and he will likely be put to the southpaw side of Johansen.

A possible spare to be retained in Columbus would be Matt Calvert, though he may benefit more from playing time in Springfield.  Jonathan Audy-Marchessault is also in line for a spot on the left, and would be the more to remain in the AHL.  But again, rushing either player to the NHL just to spend the night in the press box may not be in the interests of either, especially when there is a division to win and a playoff run to be had in the minors, allowing the youngsters the opportunity to learn, to relish, and to crave winning hockey.

Right Wing:

Even in some of the worst of seasons the Blue Jackets seemed to have some strength on the right side.  A lot of this was due to the presence of Rick Nash, who no longer will be running that side of the offense.  The new king of the right in Columbus will be fan-favorite ham-and-egger R. J. Umberger.  While not the natural talent that Nash was, Umberger's heart made him better than the captain on a number of nights.  He likely will be one of the key players on the Blue Jackets' power play this season, as well.

The likely number two right wing appears to be Cam Atkinson.  A player who surprised many experts in 2011-12 by making the team out of camp (the knock on him being that he's "too small for the NHL"), Atkinson didn't surprise many who watched him tear up the college ranks at Boston College.  Playing in Springfield during the lockout, Atkinson was a fixture in the top five of scoring most of the season, and was third at the time the lockout ended.  If there is a young player on this team that has the faithful more excited than Jenner, it would be Cam.  Since he will be expected to be top-six, it will be crucial for him to continue to build on the promise he has shown so far.

After the top-six, the right side has Jared Boll on the checking line and a likely competition between Mark Letestu and Tomas Kubalik for the fourth spot.  Both showed promise in their time with the club in 2011-12, and Kubalik has youth on his side.  But don't expect either to be satisfied with making the roster.  They will compete with each other throughout the season to avoid the press box.  And in the process of that fight, they may just dislodge Boll from a regular starting position.

Projected Lines:

Foligno - Dubinsky - Umberger
Prospal - Brassard - Atkinson
Dorsett - MacKenzie - Boll
Anisimov - Johansen - Letestu

With two newcomers on the top line, it becomes obvious how the Blue Jackets struggled offensively in 2011-12.  Granted, they did have Nash and Carter up front at the time, and Foligno and Dubinsky aren't exactly equivalent replacements.  But on the other hand, with egos that aren't so overextended, chemistry very well may improve, leading to addition by subtraction.  Grading by position would be C+ for the centers, C for the left wings, and B- for the right wings.  The success of the team, as least offensively, hinges in the top six gelling and Atkinson proving that his performance in the AHL will translate to the bigger, more physical, top league.  But of all of the young players I'd seen play in 2011-12, Atkinson seemed to be the one who showed the most heart and the best improvement over the season.

Overall grade: C+

This is conservative grading.  Call it "show-me" grading, even.  A big part of how the final grade will look, and will change, if at all, will be based on how the new acquisitions mesh with their new teammates and fit into the line structure.  If they play together like they've all been together since mites, the grade is bound to go up, and the team will be one of the surprises of the shortened season.  If Coach Richards is left scrambling lines nightly, if not during the games, then it will appear that more pieces need to be fit into the puzzle, and the grade will likely drop.

09 January 2013

2013 Blue Jackets Season preview -- Overview

This post will be the first in a series of at least four, but maybe as many as seven, season preview posts.  Tonight we'll take a broader look; an overview of the team that will look at where they are coming from and where they are going.  Going forth will be looks at the forwards, the defense and the goalies.  There may be looks at special teams, though that may get thrown into the positional posts.  There will also be posts about the opposition.  So, without further ado, here is the 2013 Blue Jackets season preview, General Overview edition.

When we last saw our heroes...

Return with me to April, 2012.  It was the worst of times.  The Blue Jackets had just finished at the bottom of the NHL heap.  The .396 points-earned percentage was the 3rd worst in franchise history, behind only 2003-04 (the last season before the last lockout; 25-45-8-4, 62 pts., .378) and 2001-02 (22-47-8-5, 57 pts., .348).  To make matters worse, they then lose number one overall draft pick in the lottery to Edmonton.  For many fans the season finally bottomed out as they watch former (and seemingly never-wanted-to-be) Blue Jacket Jeff Carter skate with the Stanley Cup as the Kings won it all.

The rebuilding process began, honestly, one year ago today, with firing of Scott Arniel as the team was in the midst of a disastrous road trip; with Arniel's final game being an embarassing 7-4 loss at Anaheim.  The move came at the halfway point of the season, with the Blue Jackets going 11-25-5 for 27 points under Arniel.  His replacement, assistant coach Todd Richards, led the team to an 18-21-2 mark for the remainer of the season, good for an addition 38 points.  At the trade deadline the club sent Jeff Carter to the Kings in exchange for defenseman Jack Johnson and a conditional draft pick.  Sammy Pahlsson was sent to Vancouver for a couple of picks and a minor league defenseman.  In a trade that was less forward-looking, Antoine Vermette was sent to Phoenix for goaltender Curtis McElhinney.

After the season ended, the interim tag was removed from Todd Richards's office door and as the draft approached there was a great deal of speculation about a blockbuster trade involving franchise winger Rick Nash.  But while that trade did not materialize, the Blue Jackets reportedly turned down the Islanders' entire draft for their number two pick; a pick used to draft defenseman Ryan Murray of the WHL's Everett Silvertips. Just prior to the draft the Blue Jackets picked up Philadelphia goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky for 2012 2nd and 4th rounders and a 4th rounder in 2013.

A new day dawns...

The opening of free agency on July 1 was not expected to carry much excitement on the signing front for the Blue Jackets.  But the prospect of a Nash trade remained and many expected it to follow soon after the big name free agents were wrapped up.  However, the Blue Jackets did make a trade on July 1, sending Marc Methot to Ottawa for Nick Foligno, who quickly signed a new contract with Columbus.  To fill the spot on defense, the Blue Jackets signed veteran defenseman Adrian Aucoin from the Phoenix Coyotes.

The big ax finally swung on July 23.  The Blue Jackets found a willing trade partner for Rick Nash.  In the final deal Columbus sent Nash along with minor-leaguer Steven Delisle and a conditional pick to the New York Rangers for winger Artem Anisimov, center Brandon Dubinsky, defenseman Tim Erixon and the Rangers first round pick in 2013.  The summer also included the signing of Jonathan Audy-Marchessault to and entry-level contract off of the roster of the Rangers AHL affiliate in Connecticut.  A major front-office hire came during the summer as well, as the Blue Jackets hired John Davidson, who had helped to mold divisional rival St. Louis into a solid contender.

The stage darkens...

The moves of the off-season had a great deal of buzz going in Columbus, and by the end of August the fans were excited for the new season to dawn.  Then it was all brought to a sudden halt on the eve of training camp as the owners locked the players out for the 3rd time in 17 years.  Fan frustration grew as the lockout dragged on, and in December cost the Blue Jackets the All-Star Game that had been awarded to them.  As the calendar turned to 2013, many wondered if the league was doomed to cancel another season entirely.  But in the wee hours of January 6 a deal was reached, and hope was restored.

Brick by brick...

As the new season approaches, with camps slated to open on January 13, fan opinion ranges from "more of the same" to "mild improvement" as prospects are assessed for the coming shortened season.  With all of the games to be played within the conference, and with the Blue Jackets' noted problems within the conference, there is cause for being at least somewhat cautious and tempered with the hopes.  However, the new young core, and what many hope with be a strengthened and bolstered goaltending tandem, there is cause for optimism, too.

Many of the most optimistic are willing to admit that if the Blue Jackets do get the breaks to fall their way, it will still be a struggle to make the playoffs, and that a 7 or 8 seed would likely be the best that can be hoped for.  The pessimists seem to feel it will be another year at the bottom of the league.  But regardless of the outcome, the Blue Jackets do have three first-round draft picks in a draft that is regarded as one of the deepest in years.  And the young players on entry-level contracts played in AHL Springfield during the lockout, leading the Falcons to the top of their division.  As a result, I feel cautiously optimistic that this will be a better season, on the order of 2009-10 and 2010-11, though I feel that the Blue Jackets will fall just shy of the playoffs.

But the important thing to remember with the 2013 season is this; rebuilding is a process.  It does not happen all at once.  And that is very much Davidson's method as a head of hockey operations, to build the team brick by brick.  Many of the foundation bricks are in place and ready to be built upon.  One of the positives things mentioned about the Blue Jackets in just about any media outlet is that this is not only one of the strongest defensive corps in the league, but also in the team's history.  There are two major question marks hanging over the team at this point; where the scoring punch for the team will come from, and whether or not the goal situation was adequately addressed.  These are the walls that will need bricks added into them.  And   which of these bricks, and how many of them, are needed, will be questions that we all await the answers to.

08 January 2013

Launch -- Welcome to The (Union) Blue Line

First of all, I would like to thank any and all of you who will read this blog.  As the title alludes to, it will focus on the Columbus Blue Jackets.  However, I will also post at times times about other issues related to hockey, especially when issues inside or outside of the game intersect with other issues I hold dear.

Now, allow me to introduce myself.  My name is Kat, and a number of you may have met me at games or debated with me on Twitter.  If you haven't met me, I live in Columbus, Ohio and was born in Western Connecticut.  I've been a hockey fan since I can remember being able to stay up to listen to games on WTIC 1080AM in Hartford; approximately the 1976-77 season of the New England Whalers.  I grew up a die-hard Whalers fan (and before the WHA-NHL merger, the New York Rangers were my favorite NHL team), which became difficult when my family moved to Ohio during the Whalers' first NHL season.  When it came to the Whalers, you died a lot harder than most fans.  They only ever won a single playoff series (a best-of-five against the regular season Adams Division champion Quebec Nordiques in 1985-86), and one regular season division championship (the next year, when they then lost in the first round to Quebec).  In 1997, about three years after the State of Connecticut sold the team, they were moved to North Carolina, to the eternal heartbreak of many in the Nutmeg State.

However, that summer, as I was finishing up my graduate studies at The Ohio State University in Columbus, the NHL awarded four expansion franchises including a team in Ohio's capital city to begin play in 2000-01.  And thus, with about a two-month period where I was left an orphaned fan, I had a new team, a new passion, and as it's turned out, a new series of heartbreaks that test just how strong my die-hard fandom is.  Nothing could sway me; not the "neon-green bug" mascot that many around the league poke fun at (but Hockey Gods love me, I can't help but have a soft spot for Stinger!), not an inaugural decade that saw only one four-game sweep in the playoffs, not even the Boomer fiasco!  I love the Jackets, and there is no other team that comes near them in my heart in any sport, except maybe my BGSU Falcon hockey team.  And hockey is the sport that I love most of all.

So, this is my blog, and welcome to it.  I will begin posting substantive entries, possibly tomorrow night.  Hopefully through this medium you will all learn more about me as a hockey fan, and how I view the game and my team.
 
-Kat